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As the dust settles on the presidential election there are a few pointers to things to come.

The first would be to see that Jarosław Kaczyński as the revitalised leader of his party and though runner-up, his showing of 47% was much higher than predicted and much higher than the PiS core support.

The second would be to see the emergence of Grzegorz Napieralski from SLD as a new polotical force. His 13% support in the first round has made him the undisputed leader of his party and he will be looking with confidence to rebuilding the left.

The third would be to see Bronisław Komorowski as an uncharismatic president who generates little enthusiasm but who got over the line due to the maxim of the lesser of two evils.

However this is probably too simple a reading of the situation.

The real winner is Donald Tusk. He has beaten PiS once again. His strategy of remaining premier turned out to be wise and he managed to defeat PiS evn with the tragedy of Smolensk, serious flooding and a very biased public media in favour of Kaczynski. Now he has for the first time all the major instruments of power favourable. The new speaker of the Sejm is Grzegorz Schetyna, Tusk's close ally. Komorowski in the Presidential Palace is close to the PO vision. Even the president of the Poland's National Bank is a like-minded soul.

The issue will be whether Tusk will launch serious reforms before the Parliamentary elections of 2011. The most pressing is reform of public finances and this looks as it may happen. There is an expectation of serious initiatives but the downfall of the reform minded government of Buzek in 1997-2001 was that they attempted too many reforms at once.

For the vacation period we will see a period of calm and inaction but I predict a major government reshuffle in early September followed by a PR launch of various legislative proposals and a reinvigoration of government.

As for the PiS party after all the work on building a new, calmer image the party has reverted to type and all we will hear from them for many months to come is Smolensk. This tragic event will become an obsession for them and their supporters and will play into Tusk's hands. All indications suggest human error and inclement weather as the major factors contributing to the accident and the attraction of conspiracy theories will only turn many centre voters away from PiS.

Certainly PiS will be more combative but the tune of Smolensk will eventually begin to irritate voters.